Closed my position on Tesla today. In January, I was up massively when I decided to double down. This mistake caused me to realize massive losses after a $150 reversal up this year. GG Musk. No Lambo for me this year!

Disclaimer: this is my own stupid thinking, not investment advice. Ask your wife’s boyfriend if this is right for you.

Summary

Feel like you missed out on winners, or were too scared to put in your Doordash check? $SOFI is literally the next big thing. Bears/bulls, value/growth, regards/chads- it fits every DD. I’m so sure I maxed out my entire life savings. Considering a line of credit on my mom’s house and a margin loan next.

PROOF w/ my brokerage, 401k, Roth, and Robinhood options

Brokerage and 401k (in the process of converting the other stocks)

Roth

Robinhood options

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This is NOT some SPAC bagholder trying to boost the stock price, nor is it a 0DTE cokehead move. This is a rational thesis for (I believe) a smart equity play. Did I see it go up a few cents, cream my pants, and think I’m the next Buffett writing this post? Maybe. In my opinion this is a 100% small penis 4-bagger and I’m sharing it like Moses with acid tabs.

Here’s the 4-point DD for you with ADHD:

• It’s Robinhood, but actually good for you
• The company is in great shape
• Permabears and bulls have reasons to love it
• The brand is (let me explain) the next JPMorgan Chase

Thesis

Product

• SoFi is actually a great product. Is it the BEST? Fuck no. But it’s like the goldilocks/Anna Kendrick of all apps. The Friday night reliable.
• The company is going for this generation’s next big bank. It is high-interest, chartered (4.3% APY) and offers everything you need under the sun.
• The whole company’s theme is: “Get your money right.” They want to be the one-stop shop for all your MONEY needs and they do it with a bank teller smile.
• SoFi will ride or DIE with you. Student loan refi, your job’s direct deposit, a loan for that cock ring, a credit card for that solo trip to Thailand, a HELOC for that YOLO stock play. It goes on and on.
• They have consumers in mind, and not in a fake old lady See’s Candy kind of way. For example: if you lose your job and can’t pay your student debt, they will pause your payments and help you find a job. No joke. Look beyond the news and you’ll see people are over the moon about their relationship with SoFi.
• They have a few bad spots (dogshit trading platform and ETFs that never move), but they are trying so fucking hard. I could go on and on, but it’s 5:49am (couldn’t sleep, came up with this post in a fever dream) and I have a ton more to write.
• They also have Galileo and Technisys, which are like new PVC pipes for the financial system. I’m literally too smoothbrained to explain this, all you need to know is there is a lot of real interest from banks and companies to use these products. /r/sofistock has nerds who can explain this to you.

Financials

• Okay here comes the boring stuff, so skip this if you don’t care about amateur due diligence.
• Remember when banks used to pay good interest, then you realized they were pocketing it all? People are realizing and going to SoFi. When the bank crisis happened and everyone was moving their money out, SoFi actually GAINED deposits. The company has said they are on-track to add $2B each quarter, and management are known to low-ball their estimates. NINETY PERCENT of their customers use direct deposit for their premium membership SoFi Plus, which will only accelerate the trend. You know how hard it is to change banks with direct deposit. Sticky as shit.

https://preview.redd.it/jht14744q15b1.jpg?width=782&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=fa503be4e6971d54e63f398b39d86b19f381aed5 h/t /u/SnipahShot for the graphic

• SoFi has EIGHT fucking quarters of consecutive revenue growth, is EBITDA profitable (whatever that’s worth to you), and is projected to be GAAP profitable by Q4. I think there’s an outside chance this happens in Q3. Dig into it more if you want to Burry it https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/files/doc_financials/2023/q1/Q1-23-Investor-Presentation_.pdf
• SoFi is growing WHILE student loans have been paused. Name a better miracle. They replaced it by diversifying their business in financial services (e.g. the shit I mentioned earlier) and other loans.
• While most banks have been selling their loan books at a loss to manage higher interest rates, SoFi have been keeping theirs to maturity and getting a higher return. There is a lot of debate into this, especially around how they calculate mark to market, so again do your own DD about this.
• By the way: “there are many reasons insiders sell a stock, but only one reason to buy.” The CEO Anthony Noto is eating pork and beans like me buying the stock like CRAZY. I mean just look at this degeneracy. He knows he has a chance to become the next billionaire bank CEO Jamie Dimon and has purchased back $13.6m dollars worth of shares (1/5 of his total comp so far lmfao).

https://preview.redd.it/33ihxpf5q15b1.jpg?width=657&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=3786cf8c33f92318fd69d6a4ef63d2e95b3cfc61

Macro

• Big picture time. Full disclosure, I’m a permabear. I literally have the worst outlook on things and I metaphorically killed my therapist with my doom and gloom. This country is so levered up to the tits it’s just one gentle breeze away from collapsing.
• But you know who always gets paid? By hook and crook, the banks will get what they’re owed. If not we are all fucked and/or there will be a bailout. If everything is going to shit, banks are the least dogshit shit. Would you rather buy a stock with a tremendous amount of debt super dependent on consumer spending, or something that will make money in a depression?
• I said this was a stock for everyone. For the permabulls, everything is fine and SoFi is growing its metrics like a rocket ship. What is there to lose? The management team has signaled good outlooks and the stock price has gone up consecutively since June 1st.
• For value investors, this stock is still near book value. Most bank stocks are, but considering its fair value by Morningstar ($16) or PT by well-known analysts ($8-12) there are still some mArGiN oF sAfEtY
• Growthies, this is a tech stock BABY. They are the AWS of finance! They use tech to analyze loan risk. They have AIAIAIAI in a chat bot! Upside everywhere
• Oh and by the way, $SOFI is not correlated with its peers. Look at $LC $UPST and other fintech companies in the sector. In my mind it’s becoming the Nubank of America.
• The Fed is expected to “skip” rate hikes next week. Long term that means APY is probably plateauing and on a downward trajectory. But if you know SoFi has done nothing but good and given you the best interest rate, why move?

Brand

• Okay let’s start with them suing the government for pausing student loans. The CEO has addressed this multiple times: they support student loan FORGIVENESS, but when it comes to PAUSING payments for borrowers who don’t qualify, they thought the 3rd year was excessive. Yes they shit the bed bad for that, but they’ll recover.
• Aside from the revenue, a big reason they did this is because the CEO has integrity. Like too much integrity to let this go for shareholders. Anthony Noto grew up working class, graduated from West Point, and rose through the ranks in the finance world. Imagine if Charlie from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was real and became a banking god.
• His track record is insane. CFO for the NFL during record growth. COO for Twitter where he was putting out garbage fires. He knows how to run shit, and now he’s back in finance after SoFi booted the last CEO for being pervy.
• One downside, he is boring as shit. He won’t talk about who’s a pedo, how Soros is evil or some other drama. He only talks about banking and banking accessories I tell you what. Bank Hill
• Look at his Twitter Likes. https://twitter.com/anthonynoto/likes He knows something is brewing, and he gets a big payday if the stock hits $45.
• Back to the company. At a recent fintech conference hosted by Piper Sandler, Noto announced that SoFi has a Net Promoter Score (how much people like the brand) of 80 for its loan business. For context, American Express has 52. The math says SoFi is literally 54% better.
• Maybe part of the reason is because they have the naming rights to a football stadium in Los Angeles. One where little kids go to see Taylor Swift and grown ass men watch other grown ass men smack into one another. Where it’s mentioned all the time for being state of the art and environmentally friendly in the largest entertainment market. WHERE THEY WILL HOST MULTIPLE WORLD CUP GAMES AND OLYMPIC SPORTS.
• I mentioned the SPAC bagholders. They still exist and have been pounding nonstop about the stock all the way down. There are some stonk flashbacks here that are about to explode.

BUT BUT BUT…

• iTs pRiCeD iN – Wall Street is only getting a taste of this dildo. Once the annual shareholder meeting comes along next week and estimates come in better than expected on earnings, this next door 2 turns into a 10.
• Student loans defaults are coming, you stupid fuck – You think the bank will let you go to Disneyland once they start asking for their money? They will garnish wages and withhold taxes on you plebs. Grow up or move to Vietnam. Or, just maybe, the stock goes up and you use the profits to pay off the ball and chain?
• This is literally your first time posting to WSB – Yes, I’m a fucking worm lurking in the shadows. This will be the one and only thesis I put out.
• Wedbush has a PT of $3, this thing is going down – Go ahead and listen to David Chiaverini, who has a success rating of 35% and has no skin in the game https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/david-chiaverini Or me, who’s about to mortgage everything because he see’s asymmetric risk.
• Why post now? – I genuinely think this will get re-rated with a soft tech valuation of $32, and we’re at the cusp of it happening.
• What will change the price – Market realization, better than expected results coming soon, major deals announced, new product releases planned this year. Literally yesterday they announced “SoFi at Work”, a program to allow employers to help contribute to student loan payments.

In Conclusion

Take this however you want, go fuck yourself etc. If you miss the boat, DM me to sign up for a new SoFi account and get up to $275 back when you set up direct deposit.

EDIT: Corrected some stats and added credit for deposit graphic. Again I cannot stress this enough, please do your own research.

Palantir’s boss Alex Karp opposes the idea of a pause in artificial intelligence research, in contrast to an open letter from the Future of Life Institute signed by some of the biggest names in the tech industry.

The letter, which has garnered over 31,000 signatures including names like Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, called for a pause on AI research on models larger than GPT-4, which powers tools such as ChatGPT.

More in the link..

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/09/tech-leaders-ai-pause-no-product-ready-palantir.html

After being down nearly all year I decided to yolo on TSLA late yesterday and it paid off. Last time I made this much I immediately went into another yolo but now I know to take a break and actually take profits. The battle is won but the war isnt over.

So I want to first start this off by clearing a few things up… Wednesday I made a post looking for $400 basically by middle of July… then what happened over night? Well yesterday markets called for a pump so I had to be bullish for today… there is a very different time frame to have on some of these posts… that $400 target is a 30-45dte target… however, I still have overnight and intraweek moves that may inverse that… This market is ruthless and can not make its mind up for more than a minute sometimes…

With that being said I am bearish for Monday… based on todays technicals… we will get to that but lets talk about CPI and FOMC first…

EVENT CALENDER

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https://preview.redd.it/vdvc1xsra25b1.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=aa8186d8ece9e1b544ada3aa3b39a6b4ec6a4d91

CPI/ FOMC

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https://preview.redd.it/pb5ceqdsa25b1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=8fafeb023689f2861cd32839218d29dbf886f007

I am waiting on bloomberg terminal numbers right now… hoping to get them this weekend (if anyone has access DM me… if not I gotta wait on one of my other sources)… but the way im seeing it right now is that cleveland fed nowcast and consensus are all pretty much spot on… the biggest thing to note here is that CPI is calling for a print in the 4s… we even if all goes well could see a print in the 3s! that would be wild to be honest… also note for next month nowcast is already calling for a 3.3% CPI print!

So the question is how do we trade this and what is the market going to do? Well I would NOT trade this at all… why? Simple… its been months since we have had a decent reaction that would make the risk to reward of the payout worth it…

Now how will the market react?

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https://preview.redd.it/yrpc2wqsa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=263f9f2bb8a15fdd477af504f928a9ac9e6c9e1d

As you can see here the last month things have been very up and down… but as of current time of writing this… the markets see the highest odds of a PAUSE at this meeting next week… now this is where I still think the markets have it wrong… there has been ZERO indication for JPOW about a pause… pretty much every time JPOW himself has actually spoken he has ALWAYS said he is going to do a 25bps hike and that there is NO RATE CUTS this year… now this is really where I think markets have it all wrong…

The markets were pricing in 75bps of cuts by EOY… Impressively… the markets now have the highest odds of NO RATE CUTS by end of year.. I do think the markets finally have this correct… however, while the odds may be correct now…. I do not see the markets reacting correctly…

I do think if JPOW hikes 25bps on Wednesday (which is highly probable in my opinion) that we will see a negative reaction to that… but I do see that as a likely call entry opportunity whenever that sell off stops…

SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

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https://preview.redd.it/mlrqya6ta25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=fe30468d1a5f8a00f101375ed9ec800c07663c0a

Well after putting that 426.6 demand in we have now immediately turned around and put a new supply in at 429.13… however, do you see the issue with it? We are imbalanced.. why? Simply because today we are going to close higher than where the supply is put in… that means markets will need to come back down OR immediately turn around and make a new demand Monday…

One interesting thing is that since pretty much April 26th SPY has not broken through a previous demand after establishing a supply… what do I mean… I mean lets take that 410.2 demand… after markets put that in and put in a new supply (was around 420) the markets held that 420.1 demand and did not close below it… we have been stair stacking (bullishly) new demands since 404 area.

However with 3 supplies here at this 428-430 area now this has become one extremely strong resistance…

SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

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https://preview.redd.it/w0h22ylta25b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e9999d3f0e05e2cab71328c9f02b94ba5570f6be

There is actually no changes to the weekly time frame here… we closed over previous supply and did not put in a new supply… DMI remains overbought and SPY remains ready to put in a new supply on any red week…

SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION

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https://preview.redd.it/le6b011ua25b1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=fe3b4eb700fb2e2572fb6e1f7a080508ee4c522f

SPY daily here remains in this black bull channel that it has been in since May 23rd… we also have the bigger broad red/blue bull channel since March 8th…

Now this is a CLASSIC bearish reversal pattern with this evening doji star closure… we also once again failed to close over 430.. We did close higher than the august 16th closure but we did not close over 430 yet again… this would be 4 failed rejections in the last 5 trading days from closing over 430.

I would not be surprised to see price come back down to 426.5 demand (support) or perhaps 428 supply on Monday… however, I do forsee it still being bullish… honestly until this black bull channel is broken and really until we close under the daily 20ema this remains bullish and dips remain call opportunities…

SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION

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https://preview.redd.it/8l2cfofua25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=4dc43cc0eba6ffe5993d38aaea51f2c07600a889

I think this weekly chart clearly shows the overall trend and shows everything the best…

Here you can see since the beginning of march we have been in this blue bull channel. Until SPY breaks under that weekly support (419 for next week) as you can see by the wicks this remains a buy the dip market… we also have a large red/ blue rising wedge that we have been trading within since middle of September… that resistance sits at 436.1 for next week.

SPY WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23
Demand- 411.57 -> 381.74
Support- 428.2 -> 422.1 -> 418.6
Resistance- 430 -> 436.9 -> 444.3

FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

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https://preview.redd.it/uxbf4bwua25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e9edcf40580e29d2541b7078b372895ca5286e40

Not surprisingly here futures followed suit of SPY and also put in a new supply at 4298. We actually are imbalanced on futures which does not usually happen. So that will be interesting to watch get sorted out over next week.. as of right now futes minimally needs to close under 4299 in order to be balanced.

4312 is the supply and resistance from the august high and we once again failed to close over that level… it is safe to assume for now 4312 is strong resistance.

FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

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https://preview.redd.it/bzs6k4eva25b1.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a811d49b20225642ea0fd966735623df11337137

No changes to futures weekly supply and demand… we are attempting to make 4284 into a support, however, it is not set up to turn it into a demand which would be incredible bullish.

NOTE ON FUTURES- on tradingview (where I primarily chart) the contracts rolled over night and when that happens the charting is always messed up for about a week because there was about a 100pt gap up due to that… there is a way to adjust for contracts but none of my levels are adjusted for that so it would throw everything off… for now I wont be including Futes daily or weekly price action until things normalize some… I will not include support/ resistance either as it is incorrect.

FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS-
Supply weekly- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540
Supply daily- 4240 -> 4292 -> 4298 -> 4312
Demand weekly- 4130 -> 3921
Demand daily- 4273 -> 4188

QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

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https://preview.redd.it/7f36vzwva25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=beb97a78ce8b16f7c9e64b31e456912c7c6629e2

Now I said yesterday I was VERY bullish on QQQ and that I was looking for 358-361… we ended up coming super close at open with hitting 357.66 but we did come up and retest that 357.09 supply and once again failed to break through and close over that level… we actually have really turned 354.95 supply into a major resistance here with this being the 5th rejection in 6 days at this level…

Now we did put in a new demand at 349.06 today… however, I will say I am VERY bearish on QQQ for Monday…

I would not be surprised at all to see QQQ come back down to at least 351 on Monday… If you look at QQQ objectively since 5/26 it has been holding within a 347.93 to 357.09 range for 10 closes in a row now… this right now is our consolidation period/ range…

QQQ likely could drop down to 350-351 Monday and could possibly put in a new supply at 354.5 area.. if it did that then we absolutely would look for 348-349 to bounce us and look to long it back to 357. However, IF we can retrace to 349-351 and not put in a new supply I would actually be even more bullish and would look for 361.7 demand to be taken out next week.

Now daily DMI is waving up which is bullish and we did hold the daily 8ema today… however, that massive evening doji star bearish reversal candle certainly should result in a drop… daily also broke extreme bull momentum…

QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

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https://preview.redd.it/0vub7bdwa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7866d11220bd8648c87cf114d36a581a119cfd70

Now on QQQ weekly here this is looking far more bearish… we just put in a double top with back to back dojis with a weekly supply at 354.65. This is our first supply since the first week of May.

Now only that but we also have a weekly DMI wave down forming here on QQQ. I will say though that despite this bearish set up that we have here… QQQ weekly remains in extreme bull momentum (despite the daily losing it) which means the weekly 8ema likely will be support on any retrace… that weekly 8ema should sit somewhere near 340 next week. Impressively QQQ weekly has NOT broken through the 8ema since the first week of may (5 weeks in a row) and we have not closed under the weekly 8ema since the week of March 6th.

As you can see we are working on a yellow rising wedge since the week of December 12th.

For me we have that 330.67 supply to keep an eye on next week… However, that would not only break the weekly 8ema but would also break the 6 month long rising wedge support… I do not think QQQ has seen the weakness and top to do that… likely weekly support will sit at 337.7 at the lowest next week but I will look for 339-340 to be a bounce point.

On the upside if we immediately bounce higher next week we actually could turn this weekly 354.65 supply immediately into a demand which would be incredibly bullish. Upside resistance of the wedge sits at 359.94 and we have a weekly supply at 361.85 to keep an eye on.

QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 330.67 -> 354.65 -> 361.85
Demand- 322.47 -> 316.18

VIX

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https://preview.redd.it/1g1n41wwa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a4a790f94d48dd3ae4e65e39904f59f4c7b977de

Even though it looked like the VIX would never recover and was just going to keep falling and falling and falling…. We actually did it… we actually put in a new daily demand (support) on the VIX at 13.62!

This is our first demand the VIX has put in since May 18th…

Fun fact about the VIX and putting in Demands (taking the move from low to high of when VIX puts in a demand till its next supply)…
March 6th= VIX +65.6%, SPY -6.5%
March 14th= VIX +34.1%, SPY -2.5%
March 21st= VIX +16.9%, SPY -2.3%
April 4th= VIX +8.1%, SPY -1.42%
April 6th= VIX +9%, SPY +0.71%
April 18th= VIX +20%, SPY -2.9%
May 1st= VIX +37.2%, SPY -3.3%
May 11th= VIX +9.6%, SPY -0.6%
May 18th= VIX +29.9%, SPY -2.6%

This is becoming my new favorite thing to do… What does this show?

On average over the last 9 times the VIX has put a new demand (support) in it has bounced 25.6% and SPY has fallen -2.38%. There is one time in April though where SPY did randomly push higher despite the VIX pushing up 9%...

But what does this mean? Well this means that if this plays out like normal the VIX will see around $17 and SPY could drop to $421.7 before we put a new supply in on the VIX (I will calculate that out once that happens).

Now thre is always the chance with low daily volatility and daily/ weekly extreme bear momentum that we do not do that and immediately turn around and put a new supply in… but I will say since November there has not been a time we have seen with the supply indicator this low that we have immediately turned around a put a new supply in…

The highest probability is that we see a bounce here on the VIX and drop on SPY… we also broke the 12 day long bear channel today… the next step is for bears to close VIX over the daily 8ema and this should breakout.

Next week with CPI and FOMC truly could be really spicy…

WEEKLY TRADING LOG

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Well I wasn’t supposed to be trading today… but ended up getting home earlier than expected and was able to get some solid trading in today. Today was a refreshing breath of air after getting absolutely wrecked yesterday… today was perfect trading and felt perfect to trade, however, after about 145 I will say that we once again say internals not matching correctly…

Overall I failed to reach my weekly profit goal but on an extremely positive note here I was able to break the curse of Fridays by putting in a green day (even after realizing my tsla loss).

This close out as a nice green week and I am not too upset with the results especially after how brutal yesterday was.

I have now been green for the last 10 weeks in a row which is one week shorter than my longest weekly streak in 2022!

I hope you guys all have a great weekend and I will see you guys next week!

In feb 2021, I bought calls because NVDA drop a lot. The price was around $250. I thought it would eventually recover. My exit plan was hold till it expired worthless. 💎👋

I see a lot of people bitching about their Tesla calls expiring worthless and just wanted to join in the fun.